Trading as a game of probabilities.

Calculated Gambling.

Trading, often perceived as a game of probabilities, entails much more than just having strategies and statistics like success rates or risk/reward ratios. It’s about understanding the odds and using them to our advantage, similar to how counting cards in blackjack does not predict the exact card you’ll get but assesses the likelihood of winning based on the known cards.

In trading, we seek high-probability events that allow us to make informed decisions. For instance, in the SP500, certain patterns recur with significant regularity, such as the likelihood of the previous day’s high or low being touched in the current session. By identifying these events and understanding the conditions that affect market behavior, traders can better gauge their chances of success.

This approach transforms trading to calculated gambling, where the emphasis is not on being right or wrong but on making decisions based on probabilities. Utilizing technology, we can analyze data to identify these high-probability events and stack the odds in our favor, waiting for the right moment to act.

Moreover, this mindset alleviates the emotional burden many traders face—the need to be correct. Recognizing that losses are part of the game and focusing on probabilities can significantly reduce the psychological stress of trading.

TdV Study in action

Mapping Probabilities.

To operationalize this approach, I’ve developed a Python script and TradingView studies that map out these probabilities, providing a clear picture of market behavior before the trading day begins. This tool, available soon, is designed to help traders make more informed decisions by highlighting key levels and changing probabilities as the market evolves throughout trading session.

For those interested in a more systematic approach to trading, leveraging technology and probabilities offers a compelling strategy, moving closer to a disciplined method that aligns with the realities of market behavior.

Stay tuned for the release of this tool, and remember, trading is not just about strategies but understanding and applying the principles of probabilities to navigate the markets effectively.

Pre-Sale offer is limited to the first 44 users who will get early access to TradingView studies, Python script and historical data – all time license! Early release will be available by the end of February.

Important: after purchase contact me at with your username and TradingView username.